Kamala Harris May Be Within Striking Distance in Solidly Red State: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of gaining ground in solidly Republican Alaska appears to have increased, according to polling released on Thursday.
The latest report from Alaska Survey Research showed former President Donald Trump still ahead, with 55 percent of support against Harris’ 45 percent, if just the two candidates were considered. Among super voters, that margin narrowed, with Trump at 52 percent and Harris at 48. Super voters are those most likely to vote in an election.
While it remains unlikely that the vice president would win the state, a vote share of that size would be the largest for a Democratic candidate since 1964 when Lyndon B. Johnson, the last Democrat to win the state, garnered 65.9 percent of the vote.
Posting about the findings on X, pollster Ivan Moore said it could signify a tighter race.
“Respondents who are positive to Harris are 67% super voters, compared to just 61% for Trump’s positive,” he posted. “It doesn’t sound like a lot, but it translates to 10% more enthusiasm and that’ll tighten a race up fast!”
Enthusiasm for Democratic candidates has grown in other races in Alaska in recent months, with the House race between incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Mark Begich seeing the former gain ground, from 40 percent support in September to 48 percent in mid-October, per the 538 polling aggregate site.
Peltola won her seat in a 2022 special election, replacing the late Don Young, who died the previous March. Her victory was secured through ranked-choice voting, meaning voters rank candidates rather than choosing a single person.
Some Democrats already have their sights set on the next gubernatorial race in 2026, with a party member leading potential candidates in September, while a Democrat clinched a mayoral seat in early October.
The state, rated “Solid Republican” in presidential races by Cook Political Report, has had a handful of Democratic governors, including the state’s first, Bill Egan. Most recent polls for Alaska show Trump leading Harris by 5 to 10 percentage points.
Trump’s margin shrank in Alaska from 2016 to 2020. In his first election, against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he carried the state by nearly 15 points. But four years later, Trump’s edge in the state dwindled to 10 points when he faced President Joe Biden.
The Alaska Survey Research poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 and included 1,949 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percent.
Newsweek reached out to both campaigns for comment via email Thursday evening.